Airspace closures in Middle East will lead to costlier flight tickets, longer journeys: Analysts

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SINGAPORE – Travellers between Asia and Europe should brace themselves for longer journeys, as well as higher fares, owing to

airspace closures across the Middle East

since Feb 28, warned aviation analysts.

As airlines flying over the region take longer routes to avoid the conflict, fuel consumption also increases, resulting in cost pressures that directly translate into pricier flight tickets.

After the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, prompting Tehran to retaliate in the region, multiple airlines have announced widespread cancellations in what is currently the

biggest disruption to global air transport

since the Covid-19 pandemic.

Airlines that are based in the Middle East are expected to be the most impacted, said Ms Mabel Kwan, managing director at Alton Aviation Consultancy, adding that airlines overflying the region will also take a hit.

On the first day of the conflict alone, there were more than 1,800 flights scrapped by major Middle Eastern airlines, said Mr Mayur Patel, the regional commercial and industry affairs leader for the Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa at aviation data consultancy OAG Aviation.

That number increased to more than 3,400 on day two, March 1, he said.

And on March 2, flight tracking website FlightAware showed that at least 1,425 flights had been cancelled across airports in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar.

Mr Patel said that the consequences for the aviation industry will be “severe and structural” if the conflict

goes on for the next four weeks

, as suggested by US President Donald Trump.

“The three Gulf mega-hubs, Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi, are central to how global aviation is routed.

“A four-week shutdown would mean millions of passengers unable to travel as planned,” he said, noting that air traffic flows between Europe and Asia have been heavily concentrated through Middle Eastern air corridors after the Ukraine war restricted access to Russian airspace.

Calling the Middle East a “critical bridge”, Mr Patel said flights are currently being forced to reroute as a result of airport closures, which adds to travel time as well as fuel costs.

Alternative options include flying through the Caucasus corridor of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, a longer southern route around the Arabian Peninsula over Oman or the Indian Ocean, or connecting through European hubs.

These options would, however, add anywhere between two and five hours to a flight, and would also cost more as airlines pass on extra fuel costs to travellers.

Although he expects airlines to try adding extra flights once airspaces in the region are reopened, it will likely be a “messy, weeks-long process”, with airports unable to cater to prolonged pent-up demand overnight.

Independent aviation analyst Brendan Sobie from Sobie Aviation said the impact of the airspace closures across the Middle East is “massive” and far-reaching, given that transit passengers account for a majority of the traffic at the main hub airports in the region.

He noted that the total number of impacted passengers is likely around one million per day, but it is impossible to forecast the full impact at this point, as it is unclear how long the conflict and airspace closures will last.

Mr Sobie pointed out that airports in the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain combined now handle about 600,000 passengers per day and account for over 5 per cent of global international air traffic.

But the continued air strikes have kept major Middle Eastern airports closed, and some have been damaged.

Mr Sobie added that many destinations in Asia rely heavily on airport hubs in the Gulf, so this conflict will significantly impact their tourism sectors and overall economies.

Providing updated figures in response to queries, a Changi Airport Group spokesperson said a total of 39 flights scheduled for departure between Feb 28 and March 7 have been cancelled. Of these, 23 were meant to operate from March 2 to 7.

The destination cities affected are Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Doha, Dubai and Jeddah, added the spokesperson.

National carrier Singapore Airlines will be cancelling its two daily flights, SQ494 (Singapore to Dubai) and SQ495 (Dubai to Singapore),

for eight days from Feb 28 to March 7

. Its budget arm Scoot will be cancelling flights TR596 (Singapore to Jeddah) and TR597 (Jeddah to Singapore) on March 2, 3, 5 and 7.

Emirates said on X that it has temporarily suspended all operations to and from its home base in Dubai until 7pm Singapore time on March 3.

Passengers travelling before or on March 5 can rebook seats on another flight on or before March 20 or request a refund, it added.

According to the Changi Airport website, four departing Emirates flights bound for Dubai and four arriving flights coming in from Dubai on March 2 were cancelled.

Similarly, Qatar Airways said its flight operations will be temporarily suspended until the safe reopening of Qatari airspace. It added on X that it will provide an update by 2pm Singapore time on March 3.

Checks on the Changi Airport site showed that all six departing and arriving flights between Doha and Singapore on March 2 were cancelled.

Bahrain flag carrier Gulf Air said its flights will remain temporarily suspended due to regional airspace closures, and operations will resume once the Bahrain Civil Aviation Affairs confirms the safe reopening of the airspace.

Two Gulf Air flights scheduled to travel between Bahrain and Singapore on March 2 were also cancelled, according to Changi Airport’s site.

Etihad Airways said on X that regional airspace closures continue to impact its operations, so all flights to and from its Abu Dhabi base will be suspended until 6pm Singapore time on March 3.